New Jersey Turnout in 2009 versus 2008

11/4/2009, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

• Turnout by gender, income, education, and race remained steady.
• Turnout by 18-44 age voters went from 47% in 2008 to 33% in 2009.
• Turnout by younger voters is always less in off years.

2009 exit polls are from Fox News, 2008 exit polls are from CNN.

The turnout by gender, income, and education remained steady between 2008 and 2009.

But contrary to most media reports, there was also no change in turnout by race.

The major factor that affected turnout was age. Those aged 18-44 comprised just 33% of those that voted in 2009 but were 47% in 2008.

But this is always the case in mid-term elections. Instead of thinking that the turnout was low in 2009 because of LESS enthusiasm for Barack Obama or the Democratic party, think again. The turnout among those aged 18-44 comprised of 33% in 2009 and 35% in 2006.

And instead of thinking that enthusiasm for Barack Obama caused an increase in turnout (by age) in 2008, think again. The turnout by younger voters in 2008 is similar to the turnout in 2004.

The low turnout among younger voters was not the only factor causing the Democratic candidate to lose. The performed worse among the demographics.