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Poll of Polls in the Governor Races

11/2/2009, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

NJ: Christie (R) ahead by 2.7%.
NJ: 6.2% Undecided according to poll of polls.
VA: McDonnell (R) ahead by 13.6%.

New Jersey: Christie (R) vs Corzine (D) vs Daggett (I)

The Republican leads in five of the past seven polls, and leads by an average of 2.7 points. The poll of polls lead by Christie is not impressive enough for him to be guaranteed of any victory -- still a tight race! But the fact that Corzine is the incumbent and he is only averaging a shade over 40% in these polls suggest a great deal of dissatisfaction among the electorate.

We would expect either Daggett voters to turn over to Christie to block Corzine and/or the remaining 6.2 percent of undecided voters to bolt for Christie. Either way, Christie should win. As pollsters have often measured, it is bad news for an incumbent when a voter is undecided going into election day. Since the incumbent is well known by the electorate, being undecided on election day is basically a "I don't like who I've got in there right now but I am just not sure of the other guy". But this is not a fool proof theory -- in 2004 Independents in the Presidential election voted for Bush over Kerry.

Pollster	Dates	Christie	Corzine	Daggett	Margin
AVERAGE		43.3	40.6	9.9	Christie +2.7
PPP (D)	10/31-11/1/09	47	41	11	Christie +6
Quinnipiac	10/27-11/1/09	42	40	12	Christie +2
Monmouth/Gannett	10/28-30/09	43	42	8	Christie +1
YouGov/Polimetrix	10/27-30/09	41	43	8	Corzine +2
Rasmussen	10/29/09	46	43	8	Christie +3
Zogby	10/27-29/09	39	40	14	Corzine +1
Neighborhood (R)	10/27-29/09	42	35	8	Christie +7

Virginia: McDonnell (R) vs Deeds (D)

The Republican is ahead by an average of 13.6 points.

Pollster	Dates	McDonnell	Deeds	Margin
AVERAGE		54.7	41.1	McDonnell +13.6
Public Policy Polling	10/31-11/1/09	56	42	McDonnell +14
YouGov	10/27-30/09	53	40	McDonnell +13
Mason Dixon Polling	10/28-29/09	53	41	McDonnell +12
DailyKos.com	10/26-28/09	54	44	McDonnell +10
Rasmussen Reports	10/27/09	54	41	McDonnell +13
Roanoke College	10/21-27/09	55	39	McDonnell +16
Survey USA	10/25-26/09	58	41	McDonnell +17

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