Updated New Jersey Governor Polls

11/2/2009, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

• Christie (R) was up by an average of 2.7% in polls we released earlier today.
• But there are four new polls out today, Corzine (D) ahead in three of them.
• Christie's average lead down to 0.7%, an absolute dead heat.

Here was the table we released earlier today, showing Corzine was up by an average of 2.7%.

But there are four new polls out today which show an average Corzine lead of 1.5%.

Putting them together and removing all polls with a middle polling date of 10/28 and prior, we get the following table:

Although the FDU poll was released today, we had to eliminate it in the recent concatenation because the middle date of that poll is 10/27.

Much is being said about how accurate these polls can be given that they are taken over the Halloween weekend. A common theory among pollsters is that liberals are more likely to be out and about during a holiday weekend while conservatives are more likely to stay home. So, in theory, if this bias exists then it exists towards Christie -- despite the fact that the recent polls have shown Corzine closing in.

I am not really certain how applicable that theory is for any of these polls. And it may be outdated too.