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Updated New Jersey Governor Polls

11/2/2009, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Christie (R) was up by an average of 2.7% in polls we released earlier today.
  • But there are four new polls out today, Corzine (D) ahead in three of them.
  • Christie's average lead down to 0.7%, an absolute dead heat.

Here was the table we released earlier today, showing Corzine was up by an average of 2.7%.

Pollster Dates Christie Corzine Daggett Margin
AVERAGE   43.3 40.6 9.9 Christie +2.7
PPP (D) 10/31-11/1/09 47 41 11 Christie +6
Quinnipiac 10/27-11/1/09 42 40 12 Christie +2
Monmouth/Gannett 10/28-30/09 43 42 8 Christie +1
YouGov/Polimetrix 10/27-30/09 41 43 8 Corzine +2
Rasmussen 10/29/09 46 43 8 Christie +3
Zogby 10/27-29/09 39 40 14 Corzine +1
Neighborhood (R) 10/27-29/09 42 35 8 Christie +7

But there are four new polls out today which show an average Corzine lead of 1.5%.

Pollster Dates Christie Corzine Daggett Margin
AVERAGE   40.8 42.3 10 Corzine +1.5
Monmouth/Gannett 10/31-11/1/09 41 43 8 Corzine +2
SurveyUSA 10/30-11/1/09 45 42 10 Christie +3
Democracy Corps (D) 10/29-11/1/09 36 41 14 Corzine +5
FDU 10/22-11/1/09 41 43 8 Corzine +2

Putting them together and removing all polls with a middle polling date of 10/28 and prior, we get the following table:

Pollster Dates Christie Corzine Daggett Margin
AVERAGE   42.6 41.9 9.9 Christie +0.7
PPP (D) 10/31-11/1/09 47 41 11 Christie +6
Monmouth/Gannett 10/31-11/1/09 41 43 8 Corzine +2
Survey USA 10/30-11/1/09 45 42 10 Christie +3
Democracy Corps (D) 10/29-11/1/09 36 41 14 Corzine +5
Quinnipiac 10/27-11/1/09 42 40 12 Christie +2
Rasmussen 10/29/09 46 43 8 Christie +3
Monmouth/Gannett 10/28-30/09 43 42 8 Christie +1
YouGov/Polimetrix 10/27-30/09 41 43 8 Corzine +2

Although the FDU poll was released today, we had to eliminate it in the recent concatenation because the middle date of that poll is 10/27.

Much is being said about how accurate these polls can be given that they are taken over the Halloween weekend. A common theory among pollsters is that liberals are more likely to be out and about during a holiday weekend while conservatives are more likely to stay home. So, in theory, if this bias exists then it exists towards Christie -- despite the fact that the recent polls have shown Corzine closing in.

I am not really certain how applicable that theory is for any of these polls. And it may be outdated too.


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