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Harry Reid In Danger of Losing Seat in 2010

12/6/2009, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Harry Reid would lose to Sue Lowden by 10 points.
  • Harry Reid would lose to Danny Tarkanian by 6 points.
  • Lowden and Tarkanian are in a dead heat in the Republican primary

Harry Reid's favorable rating is just 38-percent in Nevada according to the latest poll by Mason-Dixon.

But a lot of the coverage on this makes it sound like this is all new news... 38% happens to match his highest approval rating since late 2007.

Here are his favorable ratings since 2006 as per Mason Dixon.

Date Favorable Unfavorable
11/30-12/2/09
38 49

10/6-8/09

38 50

8/17-18/09

37 50

6/18-19/09

34 46

5/12-14/09

38 50

10/9-11/07

32 51

4/30-5/1/07

46 42
4/3-5/06 43 39

This is what Daniel Stone of Newsweek had to say:

New poll numbers this morning from a Mason-Dixon Poll show the Senate majority leader with a dangerously low state approval rating of just 38 percent.

Although what Stone said was factually correct, it was still a bit alarmist to say "dangerously low" because his favorable numbers were even lower in October 2007.

Instead, let's focus on how Reid would do in a hypothetical 2010 senate race against either Danny Tarkanian or Sue Lowden.

He would lose both of those races.

He is behind Tarkanian by 6 points but behind by an even larger margin to Sue Lowden -- 10 points. Back in October of this year, Reid polled behind each of these two candidates as well.

In a Republican primary, Lowden and Tarkanian are in a dead heat -- garnering 25% and 24% respectively. Sharron Angle is a respectable third place with 13%.


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