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Republicans Ahead in 2010 Generic Congressional Vote

2/1/2010, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

  • 2010 Congress: Republicans ahead by 2 points.
  • McLaughlin: Dem 37, Rep 42.
  • McLaughlin: Dem 31, Rep 26, Tea 8.
Pollster Date Democrat Republican
AVERAGE   39% 41%
NBC News 1/23-25/10 44 42
Research 2000 1/25-28/10 37 39
National Public Radio 1/20-23/10 39 44
USA Today Gallup 1/20/10 40 36
McLaughlin Associates 1/19-20/10 37 42

Republicans are up two points in the generic 2010 congressional vote. According to McLaughlin & Associates, they hold a five point lead.

But when there is a strong tea party candidate, Republicans lose sixteen points of support while the Democrats only lose six points.

McLaughlin Associates, 1/19-20/10
Democrat Republican Tea Party
37 42 -
31 26 8

In a three party race, the lowest percentage you can get but still win is 33.4%. If any party in a three-way race is able to get to 33.4% then it guarantees that there will be a victor. And neither of the two major parties were able to achieve that in the McLaughlin & Associates poll.

So seeing this makes me wonder if a strong tea party candidate could be successful as a presidential candidate in 2012. At this point, the Tea Party wants to curb government spending and reduce the federal budget deficit but do not have a strong vocal figurehead at the top steering them in any direction.

They have time.


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