Republicans Ahead in 2010 Generic Congressional Vote

2/1/2010, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

• 2010 Congress: Republicans ahead by 2 points.
• McLaughlin: Dem 37, Rep 42.
• McLaughlin: Dem 31, Rep 26, Tea 8.

Republicans are up two points in the generic 2010 congressional vote. According to McLaughlin & Associates, they hold a five point lead.

But when there is a strong tea party candidate, Republicans lose sixteen points of support while the Democrats only lose six points.

In a three party race, the lowest percentage you can get but still win is 33.4%. If any party in a three-way race is able to get to 33.4% then it guarantees that there will be a victor. And neither of the two major parties were able to achieve that in the McLaughlin & Associates poll.

So seeing this makes me wonder if a strong tea party candidate could be successful as a presidential candidate in 2012. At this point, the Tea Party wants to curb government spending and reduce the federal budget deficit but do not have a strong vocal figurehead at the top steering them in any direction.

They have time.