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Republicans and Democrats Tied in 2010

7/29/2009, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

• 43% of likely voters says they'll vote for a Republican in 2010.
• 42% will vote for a Democrat.
• 10% are unsure.

When it comes to polling, how a question is worded will impact the results.

Here is the latest National Public Radio Poll conducted of likely voters from July 22-26, 2009.

"I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?"

And the results were:

• Republican - 43%
• Democrat - 42%
• Other - 3%
• Unsure - 10%

Within the same week, Research 2000 conducted a poll of adults nationwide, July 20-23, 2009.

"Would you like to see more Democrats or Republicans elected to Congress in 2010?"

And the results were:

• Democrats - 40%
• Republicans - 29%
• Unsure - 31%

These polls differ in the following ways:

1. National Public Radio polled likely voters while Research 2000 polled the general adult population.
2. The question wording in the Research 2000 poll did not specifically ask who the respondent would vote for.

Just because National Public Radio polled likely voters would not necessarily make them any more accurate. Who is to say that their likely voter model is even accurate?

If this is meant to be an accurate gauge of the 2010 election, then the Research 2000 poll is worded improperly. By not asking for voting preferences, they open themselves up to criticism. It is possible for a voter to vote Republican but not necessarily want more Republicans in congress.

The only other 2010 poll conducted this month was by Diageo / Hotline which found that Democrats had the advantage over Republicans, 39% to 32%.

Their question wording was very similar to that of the National Public Radio poll but they polled registered voters.

From this, we are left with the following questions to ponder as we head closer to the 2010 election.

1. Are Republicans more likely to vote now that the Democrats have both houses and the presidency?
2. If Democrats don't turn out in 2010 as they did in 2008, would likely voter prediction models fail if using 2008 as a baseline?
3. Are voters going to hold their nose and vote Republican?
4. If they are holding their nose, why?
5. Does the Libertarian wing have the muscle to rebrand the Republican party? See our Peter Schiff article.