Republicans Are a Divided Party

2/25/2010, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

• Without a tea party candidate, Republicans lead by 2%.
• With a tea party candidate, Democrats lead Republicans by 12%.
• 52% of voters say that Obama does not deserve reelection

Despite the fact that the 2010 polls show Republicans gaining on the Democrats -- and in some cases leading, the party is still in turmoil.

CNN conducted a poll in which they pitted up a generic Democrat and Republican in 2010. The results were in line with other polls -- Republicans held a 2 point lead. But when they polled a third Tea Party candidate, the Republican support disintegrated.

Republican support dropped 14 points while the Democratic support was unchanged.

It remains to be seen just how many races will have a strong Tea Party candidate in 2010 but many are already suggesting that this phenomenon will help the Democrats. Palin is being encouraged to get involved in "the most divisive and messy House Republican primaries in the country." By doing so, she could create a rift between the Republican and Tea Party candidate strong enough to help Democrat -- just as it did in NY-23.

There are at least 55 competitive Republican primaries, many with Tea Party candidates, in Frontline races, open seats, targeted Republican districts, and other races House Republicans are trying to hype. The DCCC will regularly feature the messiest House Republican primary races out there.

As for 2012, the same poll finds that 52% of voters say that Obama does not deserve reelection -- 44% say that he does. This does not necessarily mean that all 52% of those will vote against him in 2012. One could theoretically believe Obama does not deserve reelection but be even more against his opponent.

According to Daily Kos, in a poll conducted at the beginning of the month, 44% said they would reelect Obama, 42% say they would vote to replace Obama, and finally 11% saying they would consider another candidate. This falls in line with what was stated above.

Nothing is really changing here. Democrats are losing favor with Independents. Those Independents are very loosely partnered with the Republicans but have very little allegiance with them. What it suggests is that the Republicans need to adopt a more Tea Party-esque platform to ensure they are able to secure that middle.

But Republican incumbents are going to have a tough time changing their tune and justifying their record under Bush -- so they are just as likely to be voted out as the Democrats.