State Polls Not Always Relevant for National

3/9/2010, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

• New York: Right Direction polling under 20%.
• Texas: Right Direction polls above 50%.
• State polls don't always translate to the national level.

For the first time since Siena College has polled the sentiments of New York voters (2005), fewer than 20% feel the state is headed on the right track.

California dipped to below 20% in January 2009 -- first time since 2004 -- and has stayed there ever since.

But Texas is a whopping 53%, so much for a big state trend. Massachusetts and Pennsylvania roughly match the national average of 36%, while Florida has dipped down to 26%.

These polls are highly correlated with the politics of the given state and are only slightly correlated with what is going on in the national scene.

Case in point, New Hampshire has an incredibly high 61% right direction rating but Obama's approval rating in the state according to WMUR was only 48% at the end of January. Similarly, Obama's approval rating is a low 40% in Texas despite the fact that they have the second highest right direction rating of all states.

California is on the verge of bankruptcy and New York has political scandals to deal with -- forces that have caused their right direction numbers to drop. Obama continues to enjoy high marks in those states.

State trends do not always flow up to the national level nor do national trends flow down to the state level. So when the political pundits tell you that a specific primary this 2010 election in a specific state is going to foretell the future, be weary to agree.