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Suggesting Republicans Ahead in 2010 Polls Was Wrong

11/21/2009, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

• Research 2000's 2010 Poll: Democrats 37%, Republicans 31%.
• CNN's 2010 Poll: Democrats 49%, Republicans 43%.
• Poll of Polls Average: Democrats 45%, Republicans 41%.

Last week, we made a huge fuss over the fact that the Democrats were behind by 4% in Gallup's generic ballot for 2010. But after the release of two more polls, it proves to be nothing more than an outlier.

We stated that there was a chance the Gallup poll was inflated following big wins by the Republicans in the governor races of New Jersey and Virginia but we dismissed that by saying it was minor.

The two latest polls each show the Democratic party with a 6% lead -- the poll of polls average has a Democrat advantage of 4%. In the end, it was wrong of us to suggest that the Republicans were ahead or that the Democrats were in major trouble -- especially after seeing just one poll.

For comparison purposes, let's look at what the average was in July by these very same pollsters. If a poll does not exist in July for said pollster, we shall choose their next available poll.

Basically, the Republicans cut a seven-point deficit down to four. Hardly impressive or surprising when you consider that this seven point deficit was measured at the end of Obama's six month honeymoon period and that the Republicans were only able to gain 3% since.

But the issue still stands, the Republicans are making gains. Whether or not they can sustain this will be interesting to watch over the course of the 2010 election campaign.

These numbers are going to change slightly once we factor in the results from Rasmussen Reports. They, too, have the Republicans ahead in 2010. We'll look at the data again after entering their results.