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Diageo's Poll Suggests Obama May Not Be Reelected in 2012

7/16/2009, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

• Against a hypothetical opponent in 2012, Obama would be in a statistical dead heat.
• Obama's net approval rating has dropped from 34% in June to just 18%.
• Obama's net approval on the economy dropped from 23 points to just 2 points.

The Diageo/Hotline poll conducted from July 9-13, 2009 of 800 registered voters, asked the following hypothetical 2012 poll.

"Looking ahead to 2012, if the presidential election were held today, would you vote to reelect Barack Obama or would you like to see someone else become president?" In parentheses are the results from last month.

• Obama 42% (46%)
• Someone Else 39% (30%)
• Too Early 13% (18%)
• Unsure 6% (5%)

Obama has dropped 4 points while Someone Else has gained 9%.

We state that Obama may not be reelected based on the fact that Obama and Someone Else are in a statistical dead heat. But here is how it is a bit misleading. When polls ask to matchup one candidate with another hypothetical Other, they tend to reflect their views and opinions on this mythical person. So much so that a real candidate would hardly ever poll as well assuming that the known candidate is widely known.

So had Diageo polled Obama vs [Romney, Palin, Huckabee], he'd likely have fared better but the absence of such a poll leaves us with no other conclusion.

Obama's Approval Rating

Obama's net approval rating has dropped from 34% in June to just 18% this month. Diageo measured Obama's approval rating drop from 65% to 56%.

The Economy is Obama's Dilemma

Diageo ran through a laundry list of issues and asked their sample to state whether they approved of or disapproved of Obama's handling of them. We'll denote the approval/disapproval in this form: [Approve, Disapprove] so that we can compare June and July easier.

Obama's net approval on the economy dropped from 23 points to just 2 points, making it the single most important issue for voters in July.

According to Sean Hannity's radio show yesterday, Obama has failed on the economy. With polls released like this, it appears as though many more Americans are starting to share in Hannity's views. Or perhaps it is not that he has failed but rather they do not believe his policies are helping or will help.

Comments

Who Would You Vote for in 2012?

Barack Obama (BO)	Sarah Palin (SP)
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