Mitt Romney Can Beat Barack Obama in 2012

7/21/2009, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

• Obama 45, Romney 45. Obama 48, Palin 42.
• Palin polls 8% and 5% worse among women and men respectively than does Romney.
• Democrats are more likely to crossover and support Romney than Republicans are to crossover and support Obama.

Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are in a dead heat for the 2012 election according to a new poll released by Rasmussen Reports.

Obama would beat Sarah Palin 48% to 42%.

Before you think the Rasmussen Reports poll is a statistical outlier, think again. Things have been trending against Obama and with Romney for a while.

• On 7/10/09, we reported Obama's honeymoon period was nearing its end.
• On 7/16/09, a Diageo/Hotline poll showed Obama in a statistical dead heat when paired up against a hypothetical challenger in 2012.
• On 7/17/09, a Gallup poll showed Mitt Romney was the clear front runner of the Republican party.

Had Romney beat out John McCain for the 2008 nomination, he would have stood no chance. The national polls had him trailing by about 15-20% during the primaries.

And the state polls had him losing the electoral vote: 349-173. The source of this comes from our sister site PresidentElectionPolls.com.

Enough about the past, let's look at the demographics of this fresh Romney-Obama poll.

Gender

Romney has an advantage among men and Obama has an advantage among women. Nothing out of the ordinary here.

Except when we compare Romney and Palin.

Palin polls 8% and 5% worse among women and men respectively than does Romney. Despite the fact that Palin is a woman, she does not appear to have much traction with them, not in the Republican primary polls nor in the general election polls.

Age

The older you get, the more likely you will be to vote for Romney.

This election will be decided by those in the middle, aged 30-49.

Ethnicity

Blacks continue to support Obama, 94% to 5%. But they support all Democratic presidents with the same fervor anyways.

Romney has a 22% lead among white voters.

Political Ideology

Democrats are more likely to crossover and support Romney than Republicans are to crossover and support Obama. And Independents are more likely to support Romney.

But the same is not true with Palin.

Employment

I am not quite sure what "Other" here means because it is up to the sample to decide if they fall into "Other". But if it mostly means unemployed, then Obama basically only leads among government workers and the unemployed.

Some would argue that Liberals want people to be dependent on the Government so that they can maintain power. And that means, increase the unemployment rate and socialize all industries.

If any of you listen to radio programs such as Rush Limbaugh or Sean Hannity, you would realize that this is the mainstay of their ideology.