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Mitt Romney is the Frontrunner in Latest Republican Poll

7/17/2009, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

• Romney 26, Palin 21, Huckabee 19.
• Romney's net favorability rating has gone from -12 to +8, a jump of 20 points
• Palin's favorable rating has dropped by 5% but her unfavorable rating has also dropped.

Mitt Romney is clearly ahead in the race for the 2012 Republican nomination according to the latest Gallup Poll conducted July 10-12 of 455 Republicans and Republican leaners.

• Romney 26%
• Palin 21%
• Huckabee 19%
• Gingrich 14%
• Pawlenty 3%
• Barbour 2%

Mitt Romney's unfavorable rating has dropped to 29% from 46% since he dropped out of the primaries in 2008 and endorsed John McCain. Most Republican pundits are saying Romney cleaned up his image with the voters. But the reality is that Romney's unfamiliarity has crept up while he remains out of the spotlight.

The percentage of voters that say they never heard of Romney has more than doubled. And folks saying they are unsure has also jumped a total of 5%. Voters cannot have an unfavorable view of you if they forgot who you are or have not seen you on tv/radio, etc.

Nevertheless, since February 2008, Romney's net favorability rating has gone from -12 to +8, a jump of 20 points because his favorable rating has remained steady.

Huckabee's unfavorables have also dipped from 38% to 23%. But the percent of the sample that say they have never heard of him has almost tripled.

Has Palin's Resignation Cost Her?

As we described in earlier posts, the intricate details of polls can affect the outcome in very minor ways. So comparing Gallup with Fox or CNN at this stage would be like comparing apples and oranges.

Here is how they differ:

• the way they determine their samples vary
• the CNN poll uniquely included Jeb Bush
• the Fox poll uniquely included Rudy Giuliani

With that said, the result of Gallup's poll similarly mirrors that of Rasmussen's poll also taken after Palin's resignation.

Palin's numbers were low in the Fox poll because of the siphoning of votes by Giuliani.

With the limited number of polls we have here, Palin's resignation does not seem to have cost her. She appears to remain in the low 20s.

What we do have in abundance are favorability ratings for Palin by Gallup.

Palin's favorable rating has dropped by 5% but her unfavorable rating has also dropped.

So if we were to base any conclusions on this data, it would suggest that Palin's resignation did not cost her significantly in a potential run for office in 2012.

But most folks will not buy that. And they are probaly correct. Once Palin comes before the voters and asks for their vote, would they not cast their ballots thinking about her letting down the voters of Alaska?

A Bad Economy Will Help Romney

Yesterday's poll showed Obama's approval ratings slipping due to a slumping economy. The only way Barack Obama will lose in 2012 is if the economy is bad. So all Republican hopefuls would need a bad economy to have a chance.

Since Romney's resume boasts of economic prowess, Republicans would be wise to put him at the top of their ticket. So that Americans would be putting their trust in the Republican candidate on issues such as the economy and national security. Because unless there's a bad economy and/or a national security snafu, Obama will be reelected.

Huckabee does not have the credentials on the economy that Romney has to ensure the Republican ticket gets the lion's share of economic voters in 2012.

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Who Would You Vote for in 2012?

Barack Obama (BO)	Sarah Palin (SP)
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