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Palin Leads 2012 But Meaningless

2/5/2010, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

Daily Kos: Palin 16%, Romney 11%.
Poll of Polls: Romney 20%, Huckabee 20%, Palin 19%.
Palin has led two straight polls.

Here are the full results of a Daily Kos 2012 poll released this week.

Candidate	%
Sarah Palin	16
Mitt Romney	11
Dick Cheney	10
Newt Gingrich	7
Mike Huckabee	7
Tim Pawlenty	3
Ron Paul	2
John Thune	2
Unsure	42

And here's the summary for the four leading candidates (sans Cheney and Gingrich).

Pollster	Date	Romney	Huckabee	Palin	Pawlenty
AVERAGE		20.1%	19.5%	19.1%	2.6%
Daily Kos	1/20-31/10	11	7	16	3
Washington Post Poll	11/19-23/09	9	10	17	1
CNN	10/16-18/09	21	32	25	5
Clarus Research Group	8/14-18/09	30	22	18	-
Marist College	8/3-6/09	21	19	20	1
FOX News	7/21-22/09	22	21	17	1
ABC News	7/15-18/09	21	26	19	4
Gallup Poll	7/10-12/09	26	19	21	3

Romney, Huckabee, and Palin are in a three-way dead heat in the poll of polls.

Palin has been in the lead in two consecutive polls despite the fact that a majority of even Republicans do not want to see her run.

Palin has a strong supportive base within the Republican party and it is enough to put her over the top in a crowded field of candidates -- where all the support is diluted over a large number of candidates. If she were to run and the field narrows down to a few candidates, she'll likely realize that she cannot win -- just as Hillary Clinton did.

The Daily Kos poll benefited Palin because the support was diluted towards candidates that have not generally been included in other polls.

As we mentioned earlier, the Washington Post poll was flawed and benefited Palin in that it asked survey takers to come up with a name themselves as opposed to selecting from a list of candidates.

It is hard to really make much out of this poll since it is premature to be thinking about the 2012 election without first realizing the 2010 midterms... or the actual candidates that will run. But it is fun to see where the candidates stand in relation to each other.

I am not purposely trying to knock down every poll that shows Palin ahead but her support from within the Republican party is pegged between 15% to 25% in every poll -- hardly enough to be a serious long term contender for the 2012 Republican primary so long as things stay the same ... Just you watch.

Comments

Who Would You Vote for in 2012?

Barack Obama (BO)	Sarah Palin (SP)
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