Three Way 2012 Polls

2/8/2010, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

• Obama 44%, Palin 29%, Bloomberg 15%, with 12% unsure of how they'd vote.
• 50% of voters nationwide have a favorable impression of President Obama .
• 45% today report the president is changing the country for the worse while 26% think the opposite is true.

Marist published the results of a three-way presidential poll between Obama, Palin, and Bloomberg.

The likelihood of this exact matchup is low but it does highlight two glaring issues:

1. A competitive three-way race benefits Obama.
2. Palin lacks post-partisan appeal.

According to Marist, Bloomberg would garner 20% from Republicans but only 4% from Democrats. Obama's approval rating may be below 50% but "Democrats are firmly behind Obama".

The Republicans will not only need to nominate a candidate in 2012 that has broad Republican appeal but can also appeal to the Tea Partiers.

The result of the 2012 presidential race will turn out in the Republicans' favor if it shapes up similar to Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts. It will turn out in Obama's favor if it shapes up similar to the New York 23rd congressional race in which the Republican support was split among two candidates.

Palin is not a very good candidate for 2012 either. She does not have that post-partisan appeal capable of ciphering off votes from Obama. This further stresses the importance for the Republicans to nominate a candidate with broad appeal. Democrats will stick to their candidate otherwise.