Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2012

Consumer Comfort Index Is at Negative 50

7/8/2009, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

Consumer Comfort Index is at -52.
ABC News' Consumer Comfort Index is scaled from -100 to 100, with -100 being as bad as possible.
The Consumer Comfort Index rarely dropped to below -20 during the Bush administration except as soon as 2008 rolled around.

Polls tell us obvious things and today's poll is no different: the economy is bad. But it is the degree to which how bad things are that makes the data interesting.

The three questions used to calculate the index are:

National Economy: "Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?"

Personal Finances: "Would you describe the state of your own personal finances these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?"

Buying Climate: "Considering the cost of things today and your own personal finances, would you say now is an excellent time, a good time, a not so good time, or a poor time to buy the things you want and need?"

I personally favor the Consumer Comfort Index to the Consumer Confidence Index. The Consumer Confidence Index is done by mail, done only once a month, and is dependent on who volunteers to respond to the survey. The consumer comfort index is done often, is a rolling average, and is not so personal.

People are less likely to give an honest account of how bad their personal finances are as compared to the nation as a whole. So it is best to avoid looking at polls that ask about one's personal economic situation.

To demonstrate my point, let's consder an ABC News poll that was conducted in February of this year.

The two questions read as follows,

"Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the state of the national economy?"

"Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about your own family's financial situation?".

Only 48% of individuals were optimistic about the national economy but 66% were optimistic about their own family's financial situation. That same poll found that 70% of adults felt the economy would last longer than a year. It is odd that 66% of individuals would still be optimistic about their own family's situation if so many expect the recession to last much longer than that.

Question wording manipulation has been used in the past to spin the news. Because this same poll found these two somewhat conflicting statements:

70% of adults feel that the recession will last over a year.
66% of adults are optimistic that their financial situation will improve within 12 months.

When looking through the data, one could easily point out that the Consumer Comfort Index barely dipped below -20 during the Bush administration except until 2008 rolled around. The Consumer Comfort Index was -20 at the end of 2007 and dipped to -37 in two months and then dipped to -51 in another three months.

Our good economic fortunes during the Bush administration were the result of a bubble and he was re-elected President when the CCI was -5.

We've uploaded the data to Swivel.