Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2012

Health Care Protestors May Not Be Having As Grand An Impact

8/13/2009, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

34% say they are more likely to be sympathetic towards the protestors' views.
21% say they are less likely to be sympathetic towards the protestors' views.
But out of three polls, only one had any statistical change in our views on the issue of health care.

A poll conducted by USA Today / Gallup on 8/11/09 of 1,000 adults nationwide is being touted as a win for health care protestors.

The poll found that Americans are more likely to be sympathetic towards the health care protestors' views, 34% to 21%. But this is misleading. How do we know if those that already agree with the protestors' views aren't the ones saying they are more sympathetic?

The only way to really prove the health care protestors are having an impact is to measure the change in views as a result of them. But in doing so, we have mixed results. Out of three polls, two suggest that there is no change.

The Gallup Poll conducted a poll from 8/6-9 of 1,010 adults nationwide. They asked the following question.

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling health care policy?"

The approval rating is statistically unchanged since mid-July.

	Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
	%	%	%
8/6-9/09	43	49	8
7/17-19/09	44	50	6

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation conducted a poll of 1,136 adults nationwide from July 31-Aug. 3, 2009 and asked the following question.

"From everything you have heard or read so far, do you favor or oppose Barack Obama's plan to reform health care?"

Again, no statistically significant change since late June.

	Favor	Oppose	Unsure
	%	%	%
7/31 - 8/3/09	50	45	5
6/26-28/09	51	45	4

But when we look at a poll by Quinnipiac University conducted from July 27-Aug 3, 2009, we found that approval of Obama on health care has dipped.

They asked the following question.

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling health care ?"

	Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
7/27 - 8/3/09	39	52	9
6/23-29/09	46	42	13

The major difference for the Quinnipiac University poll is that it is of registered voters nationwide instead of adults nationwide. Registered voters and the general adult sample tend to have different views.

We have seen that registered and likely voters have been more likely to be critical of Obama than the general adult population. To demonstrate the point, let's compare how Obama's approval ratings compare since Mid-July.

	Approve	Disap- prove	Approve minus
	%	%	Disapprove

Marist RV	55	35	20	8/3-6/09
CNN/ORC	56	40	16	7/31 - 8/3/09
Ipsos/McClatchy	58	37	21	7/30 - 8/3/09
Quinnipiac U. RV	50	42	8	7/27 - 8/3/09
Time	56	38	18	7/27-28/09
CBS/New York Times	58	30	28	7/24-28/09
NBC/Wall St. Journal	53	40	13	7/24-27/09
NPR LV	53	42	11	7/22-26/09
Pew	54	34	20	7/22-26/09
Battleground LV	53	42	11	7/19-23/09
FOX/OD RV	54	38	16	7/21-22/09
AP-GfK	55	42	13	7/16-20/09
USA Today/Gallup	55	41	14	7/17-19/09
ABC/Washington Post	59	37	22	7/15-18/09

Obama averages 53% in polls of RV/LV and 56% in polls of the general adult population. Among RV/LV, his net approval rating is 13.2% but is 18.3% among the general adult population.

So two things to learn from this. 1) those that are the most likely to vote have the lowest views on Obama and 2) the Democratic party needs to do a better job of converting the general adult population into actual voters.

Although all Americans are important when it comes to these issues, the only issue that matters on November 2012 when Obama seeks re-election is whether you will vote or not. And often times, politicians will tweek their rhetoric to match the sentiments of the average voter not the average adult.

For the news organizations to conclude that these health care protestors are having an impact is a bit premature according to the poll results.