Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2012

Wording is Key in Health Care Polling

7/14/2009, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

46% of Americans support the Obama-Democrat health care plan, 49% oppose, source Rasmussen.
69% support the notion of a government insurance option, source Quinnipiac.
We dissect these two polls.

If you ask Americans if they want a Government run health insurance plan as an option, 69% will say yes. Source: Quinnipiac University, 6/23-29/09.

But if you asked them if they supported the plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats, only 46% would say yes. Source: Rasmussen Reports, 7/10-11/09.

Which one is correct? Where do the American people really stand? Americans' support likely stands somewhere in the middle of 46% and 69% but let us explain how and why.

Issue polls are dependent on several factors, most notably:

interview dates
question wording
sample size
makeup of the sample

And based on these factors, we'd say that the Quinnipiac poll was biased towards support for the health care plan and the Rasmussen poll was biased towards the opposition.

When Quinnipiac University asked adults whether they wanted a government option, it was very generic. That ensures a higher level of support. For example, I would get overwhelming amount of support if I asked a large sample of adults if they supported improving education for children. But if you were to ask this same sample whether they supported the Republican plan of school vouchers as a way of improving education, support would drop.

So Rasmussen added in their own twist to it by isolating the plan to be that proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats. Congress has low approval ratings so the way this question was worded was expected to garner more opposition than the Quinnipiac University poll.

The polling dates are also off by about two weeks. So as this debate has weared on, support may also have dropped.

Additionally, the Quinnipiac poll interviewed only registered voters while the Rasmussen poll interviewed only likely voters. With more enthusiasm in the Democratic party, registered voters may have a bit of a bias towards supporting the plan. But that is just speculation.

No two polls are created equal. And one has to be very suspicious of poll results that they are fed by the news media because of all the intricacies and biases that exist.