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Wording of Public Option Polls

11/30/2009, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

• The results of a CBS poll on public option differed from the results of other polls -- 61% support.
• Of polls conducted the same timeframe, the average oppose was 43% -- 15% higher than CBS. The average support was 55% -- 6% less.
• We discuss how the polls differ and suggests under which circumstances would Americans favor the public option.

Browsing through the poll of polls average tabs above, I noticed an interesting disparity in the results for the public option.

When CBS conducted their public option poll, they found 61% were in favor of it, 28% opposed. When NBC conducted the very same poll about three weeks prior, there was 48% support.

So there are two possibilities here.

1. Support for the public option is gaining steam.
2. The question wording of the two polls were drastic enough to alter the results.

Two other polls were conducted at the same time as the CBS News poll. The average oppose was 43% -- 15% higher than CBS. And the average support was 55% -- 6% less.

The CBS News poll was clearly an outlier but it was still included in the poll of polls average for a reason. So let's see how they differ.

Here is how the NBC poll was worded.

"And thinking about one aspect of the debate on health care legislation -- Would you favor or oppose creating a public health care plan administered by the federal government that would compete directly with private health insurance companies?"

Here is how the CNN poll was worded.

"Would you favor or oppose the government offering some people who are uninsured the choice of a government-administered health insurance plan -- also known as a 'public option' -- that would compete with private health insurance plans?"

Both of these polls clearly indicated that the public option would compete with private health insurance but CNN was a bit more specific in its delivery.

• By adding the word "uninsured", CNN suggested that the plan would be for those that are uninsured.
• By adding the word "some people", CNN suggested it was not necessarily for everybody.

By adding "some" and "uninsured", CNN was able to depress the opposition to below 30% even though all the other pollsters indicated more than 40% were opposed.

The wording differences between these polls are subtle but makes a big difference in the results.

I would venture off to say that Americans are more supportive of a public option if it is:

• not necessarily open to everybody
• only for those that are uninsured -- those with pre-existing conditions, etc

So as the debate for the public option continues, in order to pass it may evolve into being more exclusive. But this would be deemed as a "weak public option" as it would do nothing to provide any real competition to private insurance.

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