Latest Presidential Tracking Polls 2012

Barack Obama's Disapproval Ratings Are Climbing

8/14/2009, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

Obama's approval ratings drops to new low, 47%, according to Rasmussen Reports.
FOX and Marist observe no statistically significant change in Obama's approval rating.
Disapproval numbers for Obama are climbing across the board.

In an article titled "Obama May Unnecessarily Be Getting Negative Coverage", we stated that Obama's approval rating might actually be steady the past couple of weeks. Since two new traditional polls and two new tracking polls have been released since then, let's look at what they might reveal.

	Approve	Disapprove	Date
FOX/OD	53	40	8/11-12/09
Marist	55	35	8/3-6/09

And compared with their earlier results...

	Approve	Disapprove	Date
FOX/OD	54	38	7/21-22/09
Marist	56	32	6/1-3/09

Obama's approval rating is not dropping by any statistically significant amount but his disapproval rating in these polls have gone up by an average of 2.5%.

Now let's look at the two latest tracking polls.

So going back to the daily Gallup tracking poll of Obama's approval rating, we see that Obama's approval rating has reached 40% each of the past three days. In his entire presidency prior, his disapproval rating reached 40% only twice.

Approve	Disap- prove
	%	%
8/10-12/09	53	40
8/9-11/09	53	40
8/8-10/09	54	40
8/7-9/09	55	38
8/6-8/09	55	38
8/5-7/09	58	36
8/4-6/09	58	36
8/3-5/09	56	37
8/2-4/09	56	37
8/1-3/09	55	38
7/31 - 8/2/09	56	38
7/30 - 8/1/09	55	39
7/29-31/09	56	38
7/28-30/09	54	40
7/27-29/09	52	41
7/26-28/09	53	39
7/25-27/09	54	37
7/24-26/09	56	36
7/23-25/09	56	37
7/22-24/09	55	39
7/21-23/09	56	39
7/20-22/09	55	39
7/19-21/09	57	36
7/18-20/09	59	34
7/17-19/09	61	32
7/16-18/09	60	33
7/15-17/09	60	33
7/14-16/09	58	36
7/13-15/09	58	34
7/12-14/09	59	33
7/11-13/09	60	32
7/10-12/09	59	33
7/9-11/09	58	35
7/8-10/09	58	35
7/7-9/09	58	36
7/6-8/09	57	36
7/5-7/09	56	36
7/3-6/09	58	35
7/2-5/09	59	34
7/1-3/09	60	33

The latest poll by Rasmussen Reports finds that Obama's approval rating has dropped to a new low of 47% and his disapproval rating has climbed to 52% (source). The approval rating according to Fox News' proprietary poll is 53% (see above) but they would rather report the results of Rasmussen Reports' poll instead?

Polls tend to offer mixed results so it is always best to observe trends across all pollsters rather than mire ourselves in the results of just one. But for Fox News to pay more attention to the results of another pollster than their own cries of bias, doesn't it?

All in all, it would be most accurate to say that Obama's disapproval rating is starting to climb because of the mixed results on his approval ratings.

What all this suggests is that fewer people are on the fence about Obama. In the first presidential approval poll by Gallup, Obama scored a 68% approval and a 12% disapproval. This means that only 80% of the respondents had an opinion on him then, now over 90% do.

Many would argue that those individuals that were on the fence were not going to approve of Obama anyways. But I disagree. It seems normal for 20% to be on the fence early on during a presidency because there is nothing to judge Obama on. Their expectations of the Obama presidency might be tougher, however, than the 68% of respondents that blindly approved of his job performance.

Obama's approval ratings are going to closely mirror the economy. If the pundits are allowed to argue that the economy is getting "less worse" and claim that as a success, why are they not saying the same thing about Obama's approval numbers? Or the reverse. If they are allowed to claim that Obama's approval numbers are plummeting why is it faux pas to say the same thing about the economy?