Barack Obama's Honeymoon Period May Be Nearing its End

7/10/2009, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

• Barack Obama's job approval rating in Gallup's latest three day rolling average is 57%.
• Approval has dropped among Independents and Republicans.
• Sean Hannity of Fox News says "Obama's approval rating is now in a freefall".

Barack Obama's job approval rating in Gallup's latest three day rolling average is 57%.

If we look at how Obama's job approval in early July compares to that of other presidents in their first term, we'd see that he is towards the bottom of the list.

President	% Approve	Dates of Gallup Polling
AVERAGE	60.8
Barack Obama	58	Jul 1-8, 2009
George W. Bush	57	Jul 10-11, 2001
Bill Clinton	45	Jul 9-11, 1993
George H.W. Bush	66	Jul 6-9, 1989
Ronald Reagan	60	Jul 17-20, 1981
Jimmy Carter	62	Jul 8-11, 1977
Richard Nixon	58	Jul 10-15, 1969
John F. Kennedy	72	Jun 23-28, 1961
Dwight D. Eisenhower	69	Jul 4-9, 1953

Bill Clinton was the only president to have a job approval rating below 50% and Kennedy was the only president to be above 70%. The average job approval rating for presidents at this stage is at about 60% and that is why it is dubbed as a honeymoon period for presidents.

Here's how the Gallup poll defines the honeymoon period:

"A honeymoon period has an obvious beginning -- when the president takes office -- but no obvious end. But given that honeymoons are characterized by above-average ratings, one way to define the end point is by marking the point at which the president's ratings become "average." And the historical average presidential job approval rating in all Gallup Polls is 55%."

Obama's honeymoon period will end once his job approval ratings slip another couple of percent. The recent average length of honeymoon periods is 7 months, so Obama's approval rating lies within the norm.

Why is Obama's Approval Rating Slipping?

• Approval among Independents has dropped from 59% to 53%.
• Approval among Republicans has dropped from 40% to 23%.

Democrats still support Obama at a 90% clip.

We wrote an earlier article relating the unemployment rate with Barack Obama's job approval rating that suggested Obama's approval rating will drop as the unemployment rate continues to climb.

Obama's Re-election Chances

It is tough to relate this poll with Obama's fate in 2012.

The first Bush had an approval rating of 66% in July 1989 and high approval ratings after a successful first Persian Gulf War but was not re-elected.

Bill Clinton's approval rating was only 45% in July 1993 but he had no problems beating out Bob Dole for his second term.

Fox News' Reporting Versus Gallup

Fox News published a story on their website about an hour ago in response to this poll. It was titled "New Polls Reveal Big Problems for Obama"

"Mr. Obama's approval rating is now in a freefall". - Sean Hannity

Unfortunately, the pollster that brought you the poll says this is somewhat expected.

Gallup Poll

It is not unusual to find job approval ratings drifting downward as presidents' honeymoon periods begin to fade. The drop in Obama approval seen so far in July is to some degree expected. - Frank Newport

Put things in perspective, Obama's support still remains above 50% among Independents. The biggest drop in support was among Republicans and this is not major news. Republicans are not supposed to approve of a Democratic president's job performance.