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Disturbing Poll Numbers for Obama by Harris Interactive

10/18/2009, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Only 45% of adults approved of Obama's performance as president.
  • 61% believe the country is heading on the wrong track.
  • Methodology of this poll causes Obama to score an average of 17% lower in the lower two age brackets. So take it in stride.

Harris Interactive surveyed 2,293 adults from October 5 to 12.

Results

Only 45% of adults approved of Obama's performance as president.

Democrats still stand behind their president, 77% approve of his job performance. Despite being ardent supporters of the Obama 2008 campaign, those aged 18-32 were mixed: 51% approved, 49% disapproved. Obama' approval rating is lower than 50% in every other age bracket and it goes lower by age; i.e. those aged 64+ give him an overall rating of 39%.

If Obama does not get the fervent support from the young generation in 2012 as he had in 2008, he would be in trouble.

61% believe the country is heading on the wrong track.

Comparison With Other Polls

This is in stark contrast with a few other polls conducted during the same time frame.

  1. 56% CBS; Oct 5 to 8
  2. 53% Marist; Oct 7 to 12

The 49% that Obama received in the latest Fox News Poll was not included for comparison because there were no overlap of polling dates. Fox conducted their poll on the 13th and 14th.

To account for the low approval ratings, one cannot skip the fact that it was conducted online. "Propensity score weighting was ... used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online" according to Harris but if there exists a bias within any of the demographics then it would show up in the results.

Anybody can sign up to take these online polls, just join directly through their website Harris Poll Online.

Approval Ratings by Category

Marist polled registered voters, Harris and CBS polled all adults.

Pollster Overall Dem Ind Rep
Harris 45 77 40 14
CBS 56 87 52 20
Marist 53 84 45 21

Obama consistently scores lower across all party IDs in the Harris poll.

Pollster Age 1 Age 2 Age 3 Age 4
Harris 51 42 45 39
Marist 70 57 46 46

Obama scores an average of 17% lower in the lower two age brackets and just an average of 4% lower in the higher two age brackets. So if there was a bias, it seems to be based on age.

It could be that young voters are more critical of Obama if they are either online or not registered to vote.

Since the results of this poll is more of an outlier than it is a rule, look at it as such.

Unless there are more polls showing Obama's approval rating to be at or below 50% in all age groups, take the results here in stride.


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