Obama's Approval Closely Correlated With Results from 2008 Election

8/10/2009, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

• Obama's net approval is above double digits in all 50 states.
• He only polls below 60% in two states that voted for him: Nevada and Colorado.
• He polls above 60% in five states that voted against him: North Dakota, Missouri, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Georgia.

Gallup conducted interviews of 81,022 adults nationwide from Jan 21 - June 30, 2009 and found that Obama's net approval rating is over double digits in all states.

The bad thing about this poll is that it is the aggregation of all Obama approval polls from January to June. Not only are we including results during Obama's honeymoon period but it excludes the results from July when Obama's ratings were slipping.

The good thing about this poll is that it allows us to compare the states.

60% is a good threshold. Obama tends to poll above 60% in states that voted for him 2008 and below if the state voted against him.

He only polls below 60% in two Obama states: Nevada and Colorado.

And polls better than 60% in five of the twenty-two McCain states: North Dakota, Missouri, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Georgia.